Hot Streak Breakdown: Danny Salazar

Sep 3, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Danny Salazar (31) throws the ball in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

It’s always fun to watch a batter tear the cover off the ball for weeks at a time, or watch a pitcher mow down lineup after lineup over a bunch of starts.  But amidst the hype, sometimes the best numbers get lost.  In this segment, we’ll attempt to analyze what exactly is behind a player’s hot streak, along with a few impressive statistics you may not have noticed.

Player:  Danny Salazar

Breakdown Time Frame:  August 23rd to September 7th (2014)

Performance:  20 IP, 20 K, 4 BB, 1 ER, 15 H

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Below the Surface:  Salazar’s emergence as a fixture in the rotation at the end of last year was practically folklore.  In his first appearance with the Tribe, he took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before a blown ball/strike call gave the opposing batter an extra strike, which he used to rifle a single into left field.  From that point on, Salazar pitched to a 3.10 ERA in ten appearances down the stretch as a vital part of the Indians’ playoff run.  He was even given the nod to start a wild card game in which the Tribe was shut out.

Unfortunately that positive start took a downward turn at the beginning of 2015 in the form of a major sophomore slump.  A nine-start stretch that saw him go 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA and a 4.69 FIP got him demoted to Triple-A Columbus to work through his issues.  Since coming back, he has made a complete turnaround, posting a 2.30 ERA and 2.59 FIP in eight appearances.  What’s the cause of this drastic turnaround?  Let’s once again find out in the nerdiest way possible.

One of the more obvious factors is that Salazar allowed eight homers in his first nine starts, but just one since being recalled.  But that still doesn’t explain what he’s changed.  Whatever it is, we want to know, because it’s culminated in a complete game shutout in his most recent outing against the Detroit Tigers, one of the best offenses in baseball.  That shutout gives Salazar a scoreless streak of 17 innings, with the last run he allowed coming on August 23rd against Houston.  One way to explain it is by looking at his fastball velocity.  During his first nine starts, his four-seamer and two-seamer were averaging 93.8 and 92.9 mph respectively, but during his past three starts those numbers are up to 95.2 and 94.3.

But it’s not just fastball velocity.  Salazar has been much better at keeping the ball down in the zone, which explains why he’s been so stingy with the homers.  Overall command has been huge for the young fireballer.  We watched him paint the corners with 95, 96 and 97 mph heat over and over again during his shutout performance against the Tigers.  If we break Salazar’s 2014 so far into three separate windows, we can see that during his first nine starts, Salazar walked 3.76 batters per nine, in the next five he walked 2.23 per nine, and in his recent three he walked just 1.80 per nine.  Across those three windows, we’ve watched the run value per 100 pitches of his fastball  (wFB/C) move from -1.02 to 0.48 to 2.81.  This is an incredible difference and shows just how well Salazar is commanding his fastball.  With the extra velocity, it’s almost completely unfair, especially when he’s throwing 98 mph in the 9th inning.

What Can We Expect Moving Forward?  The amazing part through all of this is that Salazar still has room to improve.  That doesn’t mean his scoreless streak will continue forever, but we could still see his fastball’s average velocity move up a tic considering it was over a full mile an hour higher during his last four starts in 2013, a run that began on September 8th.  He’s also still figuring out his command, though I can’t imagine it being much better than it was during his shutout.  The HR/FB rate of 0 during his streak isn’t likely to stay static, but if he can keep the ball down he won’t be near as homer-prone as he was earlier in the year.  I see no reason why Salazar couldn’t throw another shutout at some point this year, but in order to manage my expectations I’ll predict he goes seven innings in his start today against the Angels.  He could easily finish the year with a sub-3.00 ERA over his next four starts.  The kid is something special, and he’ll be here for quite a while.