The Curious Case of Trevor Bauer

Indians SP Trevor Bauer has struggled mightily in the first inning this season

Death. Taxes. The first inning.

For Indians fans this season, two of those have nearly happened simultaneously every fifth day since the end of May.

Trevor Bauer’s first inning struggles have been well documented. Other than the seventh inning (which he has only reached in ten of his 22 starts), his 6.55 first inning ERA is more than two runs worse than any other. With 12 unintentional walks, one intentional and a hit batter, Bauer has put more runners on base in the first inning than any other, resulting in a sultry .371 OBP for hitters.

No matter how thin you slice it, it’s still baloney. Bauer has been flat out bad early on in games. His latest clunker came last Thursday, when he gave up four runs on four hits with three walks in a 38-pitch first inning. Thankfully it was only against the team who is directly in front of them in both the AL Central and Wild Card standings, the Detroit Tigers, and defending AL Cy-Young award winner Max Scherzer.

“It’s disappointing,” manager Terry Francona said following the eventual 11-4 extra-innings loss. “We’re down, 4-0, before we can take a deep breath and you’ve got Scherzer on the mound. That’s not a real good formula.” Francona’s tone was that of a father who loves his son to death but is getting sick and tired of the school principal calling his home because Trevor just won’t stop walking people in the first inning.

Sep 4, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer (47) delivers a pitch in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Bauer’s pre-game routine and ideas about pitching have also been well-documented. It was widely reported that his stubbornness about changing virtually anything about his throwing program or mechanics was one of the reasons why the Arizona Diamondbacks traded him to the Indians in the first place. The third overall pick in the 2011 draft, Arizona cut ties with him only a year and a half later, sending him along with Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw to Cleveland in December of 2012. On one hand, people thought that was a bit too early to give up on a prospect as highly touted as Bauer. On the other, there must have been some pretty serious reasons to do so.

Stubborn was the word that popped in Francona’s mind last Thursday, too.

“I just think Trevor tries to find (his) pitches right away in the game and sometimes it takes a while. That’s why we’ve been talking to him about simplifying things early. But he’s a stubborn kid and he’s come a long way. You’re not always going to get it in one jump.”

He did go on to clarify that his description of Bauer wasn’t meant as a knock on his pitcher.

“It’s not a bad thing,” said Francona. “It just takes different lengths of time for these guys to understand themselves. He’s done actually a pretty remarkable job when you think about where he is now compared to last year. He’s just got to keep going.”

The question now becomes: keep going to where? Bauer has indeed made positive strides so far this season. Other than that dreaded first three outs, he has been much better than he was for the Tribe in 2013. He only threw 17 innings for the big club last year but he tossed the same amount of games for AAA Columbus as he has so far this season in Cleveland (22). His 4.10 ERA is better than it was in Columbus (4.15). His 0.83 HR/9 ratio is much better (1.04), as is his 3.84 FIP (5.08). He’s walking less hitters (3.82 BB/9 to 5.41) and striking out more (8.61 K/9 to 7.86). While some of these numbers are average to below average, going from horrible to not that bad is still an improvement. And this is on top of the jump from AAA to the major leagues.

Jul 18, 2014; Detroit, MI, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer (47) watches from the dugout during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

Some of the panic over Bauer’s struggles could very well be overreactions. Sometimes, one screw up turns into two and gets in your head. Fielders who get paid to play defense get the yips all the time. Maybe this first inning business is just a mental thing for Bauer. He’s still only 23 years old, the fifth youngest pitcher in the Major Leagues to throw at least 120 innings this season. Maybe once he strings together a few good first innings he will get over it.

Or maybe he won’t. Let’s go back to Francona’s quote from last Thursday. “I just think Trevor tries to find (his) pitches right away in the game and sometimes it takes a while.” It does seem that Bauer makes quite an effort to mix his pitches, especially early in the game. Like a lot of pitchers, he relies quite a bit on his fastball, throwing it around 50% of the time. However, unlike a lot of pitchers, he has three secondary pitches that he uses more than ten percent of the time, a fourth at just under ten percent, and a fifth at five percent.

There is really no need to throw that many pitches in today’s game. Clayton Kershaw throws a fastball 54.6% of time, a slider 30.1% and a curveball 14.3%. That’s about it. Felix Hernandez throws three pitches more than ten percent of the time (fastball, slider, changeup).

I’m sure this has been echoed to Bauer by both Francona and Mickey Callaway. Look at what Corey Kluber has done this year. Focusing more on his cutter and curveball and almost nixing his changeup entirely, Kluber has had the most dominant season by an Indians starting pitcher since Cliff Lee won the Cy Young in 2008.