Jason Kipnis and the Development Curve

Aug 17, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians second baseman

(22) singles in a run in the fourth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve ever played a “Franchise Mode” in a sports video game such as Madden or MLB: The Show (or MVP Baseball 2005 if you prefer the greatest baseball video game made), then you’re surely aware of how player development works in those games. Virtual General Managers the world over have benefitted from the knowledge that the players at the whim of their joystick will improve, and eventually decline, steadily and predictably year over year.

All too often however, fans take this same view of player development from their favorite virtual teams to their favorite real-life teams. Fans expect players to follow the same steady development curve as their videogame counterparts. While any positive deviation from the expected curve is simply a matter of a player’s hard work and innate abilities showing themselves, any negative deviation is at best an alarming setback to the player’s career and at worst a sign that the player was never all that good to begin with.

Every team in baseball, and really every team in every sport, experiences their share of guys stumbling along that development curve. For the Cleveland Indians, no player embodies this idea as well as Jason Kipnis. After slashing .257/.335/.379 in 2012 and .284/.366/.452 in 2013 everyone, not just fans but media pundits and most likely front office personnel as well, thought they could count on Kipnis to match his 2013 season (if not exceed it). At the very least, they probably figured that if Kipnis did struggle, his season would profile very similarly to his 2012 season when he posted a just-above-average 102 OPS+. There’s not a single person who thought that Kipnis would slash an anemic .248/.320/.344 and rank as barely above replacement level (1.1 fWAR), even when factoring in that he missed a month due to an oblique injury.

So whatever way you look at it, Kipnis’ season can only be viewed as a major disappointment, a fact not lost on Indians fans. Fans have taken to Twitter and other outlets to voice their frustrations, and some people have gone as far as to suggest the Indians should investigate the trade market for Kipnis and install Jose Ramirez as the everyday second baseman in 2015.

But despite this hiccup in his development curve, there are plenty of reasons to believe Kipnis can get back on track in 2015.

First off, it’s important to note some of the explanations that clearly aren’t the cause of Kipnis’ down year. Kipnis is an excellent athlete in his physical prime. This isn’t the case of an aging slugger losing the bat speed necessary to drive the ball á la Travis Hafner in 2007-08, so physical skills erosion probably doesn’t account for the 158 point drop in OPS. It’s also a pretty good bet that Kipnis didn’t simply forget how to hit overnight or get his baseball talents stolen by intergalactic aliens, Space Jam style.

As far as actual explanations go, the oblique injury is the obvious suspect. There are a lot of people, chief among them being Kipnis himself, who believe that an oblique injury can hamper a player for an entire season. There is evidence saying that position players miss more time for oblique injuries that are contralateral, or opposite, of the player’s dominant batting side versus ones that occur on the same side (Kipnis strained his right oblique), so it’s reasonable to believe that even three months later the oblique injury is largely responsible for Kipnis’ inability to hit the ball with any authority.

Sep 9, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis (22) doubles in the second inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

But regardless of how much stock one puts into the injury explanation, the ultimate reality, the one that clashes with our preconceived notions of how a player should develop, is that sometimes players just have bad years without much of an explanation. Baseball is an incredibly difficult game. The hand-eye coordination needed to synchronize all the moving parts in swing in order to square up a 94 mile per hour fastball with strong arm-side action is perhaps the single most challenging task in all of sports. When viewed like this, it’s no wonder that some players go entire seasons where their mechanics are just a little out of whack and they’re unable to properly adjust without a full offseason to reset.

As a former all-star entering his age-28 season, the probability Jason Kipnis bounces back is high enough that it makes trading him at the nadir of his value incredibly shortsighted. Any team worth its salt would leap at the chance to acquire a guy who one season ago was the second-best second baseman in baseball and who is signed to a bargain contract.

Ah yes, the contract. The Indians received plaudits all around when they extended Kipnis for six years, $52.5 million just before the start of the season. If Kipnis can get back to even his 2012 level of play, he will be a bargain the next three seasons, when he will make $4 million, $6 million, and $9 million respectively. The issue crops up with the final two years of his deal, when he will make $13.5 million in 2018 and $14.5 million in 2019, with a $16.5 million team option for the 2020 season.

That may sound like a lot of money to commit to a second baseman who will be in his early thirties and is coming off a season where he struggled to crack the 1.0 WAR mark as a 27 year old. But here’s where team context comes into play. Writers often make note of how much a win costs on the open market, be it $6 million or $8 million or whatever figure their mathematical model spits out. But wins, and the contract attached to those wins, have different values for different teams. The Indians don’t have the ability to sign a 4-win player in free agency, and the free agents they are able to bring in are often available to them only because the majority of other teams view them as unworthy or unnecessary in their own team-specific situations.

For the Indians, having a guy on the books who has previously shown the ability to be one of the best at his position is a huge boon. Also, keep in mind the Indians front office is ridiculously meticulous when it comes to planning their future payroll budgets. They don’t enter into contracts with players with the intention of trading the player when his salary becomes too onerous. The team signed this deal because they intend to have a great player on a reasonable salary, and it would be exceedingly difficult for them to replace that level of talent at that price.

Yes, Jason Kipnis’ struggles amidst a playoff push have been frustrating, but that frustration shouldn’t cloud judgment of what Kipnis will be able to do in the future. Kipnis is a fantastic bet to regain his place and continue his progress on the development curve prior to this season’s hiccups. It would be a shame if he did so for an organization other than the Cleveland Indians.