Cleveland Indians: Can Reliever Bryan Shaw Continue His Success?

Have the Indians Overused Bryan Shaw?

When the Cleveland Indians traded Shin-Soo Choo for Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers, and Bryan Shaw, they probably weren’t expecting Shaw to make arguably the biggest impact of the group. While it remains to be seen as to what Bauer’s full potential is, one thing is clear: Shaw has been a very valuable member of the bullpen over the past three seasons.

Since coming to the Indians, Shaw has been worked incredibly hard. In 2014, he pitched in more games than any other reliever in the league, with 80 appearances. Last season, he was reduced to only the second-highest total appearances in the American League, at 74.

There has been a lot of speculation as to how this overuse has impacted Shaw. While some might point out that years ago, pitchers could take the mound every day without being considered “overused”, that’s just not true anymore. Today’s pitchers’ arms aren’t conditioned for that, and they’ve also throw a lot more pitches by the time they reach the major leagues than many “old-timers” did in their entire career.

That said, the troubling aspect of Shaw’s appearances isn’t so much the total, but rather the kind of outings he typically has. Of the 74 appearances in made in 2014, 17 came on days with no rest, and 15 of them included more than one inning of work. Over 40 were considered high- or medium- leverage, which is determined using the score and the inning, as well as the amount of runners and number of outs. Shaw isn’t just getting a lot of work, he’s getting a lot of intense, high-effort work – and that’s an entirely different type of stress on his arm.

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Shaw finished the year with relatively the same numbers as he has each season since joining the Tribe. He struck out just over 20 percent of batters – relatively league average – and walked 7.2 percent – also relatively close to league average. The difference came in the balls that hitters did make contact with.

When opposing batters hit the ball, they hit it hard. Shaw’s home run rate jumped to 3 percent, up over both his career average of 1.9 percent and the league average of 2.5 percent. He allowed line drives at a rate of 28 percent, when in the past, he had always allowed them at the league average of 22 percent or lower. His extra base hit rate also jumped up about 1.5 percent, bringing him up to average.

Add that to the fact that Shaw’s FIP has slowly increased each season – 3.07 in 2013, 3.42 in 2014, and 4.01 last season). This is largely due to the fact that his strikeout totals have declined by about 10 punch outs each season, while his home run totals have increased by two each season.

For whatever reason, hitters are squaring up the ball in a way they haven’t been able to in previous seasons. The Indians need to quickly find someone to compliment Shaw and Allen in the bullpen, before they’re forced to rely on Shaw for another 70+ innings of work next year. His 2.95 ERA looks good now, but all other signs point to the fact that he could become a liability rather than an asset at any time – and the Indians don’t want to be stuck with no other options when that time comes.

Next: Can Ryan Merritt Help the Tribe?

Don’t forget to check out the rest of our season reviews, as we wrap up 2015 and look ahead to next year.