Cleveland Indians Face a Closing Window of Contention

The Cleveland Indians’ star players are getting older – and more expensive

Over the past few seasons, fans of the Cleveland Indians have been fortunate to watch a contending team. Sure, the team has only made the playoffs once over the course of three seasons, but the Indians have ended the season above .500 each year. 2015 capped these three exciting years, as many expected the Cleveland Indians to win the American League Central crown. Sports Illustrated even went so far as to predict the Tribe as World Series winners.

This said, the team is getting older. While this means experience and improvement for many, it also means regression for others. Three of the Indians’ top four batters currently expected to return are aged 28 or older. This may not concern many fans given the old adage of a player peaking at age 29, but more recent studies have pointed to a shift in this trend. The average batter will begin to age after his age-26 season.

The same can be said for pitchers. Work by Bill Petti, albeit three years ago, pointed to a player’s age-26 season being the final season before decline set in for starting pitchers. For relievers, their volatile nature (remember Scott Atchison?) makes regression seemingly begin immediately.

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Even though the Cleveland Indians are known for having young starting pitchers, Corey Kluber isn’t getting any younger. The same goes for the Tribe’s other ace, Carlos Carrasco. The pair will be 30 and 29 years old next season, respectively. Also concerning is that Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer, on whom the Indians have and will count, and going to get really expensive soon. The duo will be arbitration eligible for 2017, and strikeout-heavy pitchers tend to be expensive. Assuming a repeat of 2015 for these two pitchers, my arbitration model expects Salazar to make about $4.5 million; Bauer, $3.6 million.

This underlines my next point: the young Indians are going to start getting expensive. For projecting future payrolls, baseball-reference.com provides a simple model that gives us an expectation. The model adds guaranteed salaries with an estimation of arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries to arrive at an expectation of what the team would cost, with its current roster construction, in “x” years.

Here is a table for these values over the next few seasons:

[table id=27 /]

*First year as a free agent, possibly not on team

The table sends a clear message: the Indians need to win now. In 2018, the team will cross into uncharted territory of having a $100M payroll. By 2019, the team will have lost two of its best batters and three of its best relievers. In 2020, ten players will be eligible for their third year of arbitration.*First year as a free agent, possibly not on team

Fortunately for the Tribe, Clint Frazier, Brady Aiken, and Bradley Zimmer should be ready to step up and replace the exiting talent. These youngsters also have the potential to supplant aging veterans when their performances drop. Finding talent will not be a problem for the Indians in 2018 and beyond. The problem will be how to pay for the talent.

Finding talent will not be a problem for the Indians in 2018 and beyond. The problem will be how to pay for the talent.

I do not doubt the front office, and I know that they will find a way to field a competitive team in the future. They will make trades to continually renew the roster and replace players who are about to become expensive with cost-controlled alternatives. Players will sign long-term contracts that lower the expected salaries and allow more accurate projections.

Even further, these estimates rely on the roster staying the same for the future, something that will almost certainly not happen. But the fact remains that the Indians’ good, cheap talent will start being eligible for arbitration in the coming seasons. Combing this with the effects of Father Time makes the Indians look more vulnerable than we might think.

Unfortunately, we cannot expect the Indians to be perennial contenders. It has been three years since the last time the Indians had a losing season, and the next faze of rebuilding could be upon us before we taste the glory of winning a division crown.

This is sure to frustrate fans. Fans have become used to defined stages of success and failure that follow a cyclical pattern. Teams win; they implode; they rebuild. But the Indians have yet to follow this clear cycle. They have been stuck somewhere in the middle of all three phases. Past trades have mostly functioned as to keep the window of contention open longer, but the team just doesn’t quite have the talent to win the division.

The Cleveland Indians don’t have enough money to win now, so they have to wait for prospects to develop into the stars they cannot afford to purchase. But by the time the prospects develop, the rest of the team will be too expensive to sustain.

It’s the ultimate torture. The Cleveland Indians don’t have enough money to win now, so they have to wait for prospects to develop into the stars they cannot afford to purchase. But by the time the prospects develop, the rest of the team will be too expensive to sustain. Thus, the Tribe will sell off aging big-league talent, choosing to plan for the future with prospects. But this attempt will prove futile unless the Indians can manage to have the prospects come forth in a massive, terrifying wave of pure domination. If the prospects are not ready at the same time, they will end up where they are now.

The Indians need to do something similar to the Chicago Cubs, and have all the prospects graduate at once. Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, and Javier Baez have all joined the Cubs within the past year, and these five players are the core of the team for the future. Unfortunately, the Cleveland Indians cannot afford to sign a Jon Lester to fill a hole, but the basic concept remains the same. The Cleveland Indians need to do what the Chicago Cubs did, but they need to do it better.

The closing window of contention leaves the Indians with two choices: expand the window or close it all together. Each has its own benefits, and both are quite risky. Trying to expand the window would rely on the current roster becoming a winner. Entering a full-blown roster overhaul would rely on enough prospects developing at once to win ball games. This would include trading top prospects when they reach the majors for more or better prospects that are farther away from reaching the big leagues, and would plunge the Indians into years of darkness.

Each option is a massive tradeoff and has a huge risk, but it is a decision that has to be made. Should the Indians try to extend the window and risk delaying the rebuild, or should the Indians have an Astros-style overhaul and risk returning to where they are right now?

Personally, I would give the team one more year. The front office should spend some money this offseason and bring the payroll up to around $90 million. Hire a reliever; improve center field; and extend Cody Allen. Given that the only contract that will expire after 2016 is Josh Tomlin’s, the Indians can afford to see how the year pans out. Should the team provide middling results once again in ’16, it may be worth selling off valuable assets and setting the sights on 2021. Just because Major League Baseball can afford to have a team be stuck in limbo doesn’t mean that the Indians’ chances of winning should remain tethered to a few well-timed breakouts.

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