Why Terry Francona Should Be AL Manager of the Year

The Cleveland Indians are on the verge of clinching a division title and postseason berth. Through all the adversity the team has faced in 2016, manager Terry Francona has been a rock, a true north for the Tribe to look to. Does that make him deserving of Manager of the Year in the American League?

When the Cleveland Indians take the field on Monday night in Detroit, they will do so with a chance to clinch the American League Central Division championship for the first time since 2007. When one considers what the club has endured to reach this point in 2016, there are a plethora of explanations, but much of the Tribe’s success can be traced back to one common denominator: Terry Francona.

Cleveland’s skipper, in his fourth year leading the team, has put in perhaps the best managing job of his already impressive career this year. The Indians are 90-65 entering play tonight, with a seven-game lead in the Central, and a magic number of just one, and they’ve done it with a cobbled together outfield, an injury-racked starting pitching rotation, and a cadre of catchers who have been among the league’s worst position groups offensively all season long.

More from Away Back Gone

• Cleveland Guardians tantalizingly close to locking up AL Central tiebreakers
• Cleveland Guardians: Terry Francona becomes meme in profanity-laced ejection
• Say goodbye to defensive shifts and hello to bigger bases, pitch clock in 2023
• Cleveland Guardians: Shane Bieber second-fastest to 800 strikeouts in major-league history
• The next week will make or break the Cleveland Guardians’ season

As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports recently wrote, Francona blends the human element of managing with the utilization of statistics and sabermetrics as well as anyone in the game.

“The best current managers excel at combining both worlds, and I’m not sure any manager is doing that better this season than the Indians’ Terry Francona,” Rosenthal wrote.

If you had known back in spring training that the Tribe would have all-star left fielder Michael Brantley for all of 11 games, that both Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar would be out of the starting rotation with injuries on multiple occasions, including during the stretch run of September, and that former Silver Slugger catcher Yan Gomes would both hit at a historically terrible level and miss more than half the season with his own injuries, where would you have projected the team to finish?

Almost certainly, few would have predicted Cleveland to win 90 games, or to dethrone the Kansas City Royals atop the division, or to dominate the Detroit Tigers as thoroughly as they have. And yet, here we are with seven games left in the regular season, and the Indians have been in first place for the 115 days.

This season would not have been possible without Tito at the helm. He has walked the line between stats and psychology since February in Goodyear, building his players’ confidence up, putting them in positions to succeed, and taking advantage of the matchups the roster makes possible.

“Francona doesn’t seem to get named as a top-flight manager nearly as often as he deserves,” said a recent piece by Beyond the Box Score. “Not only is he personable and great at connecting with players, he’s displaying both a stat-friendly approach and the ability to earn the trust of his players and sell them on that approach.”

“The best current managers excel at combining both worlds, and I’m not sure any manager is doing that better this season than the Indians’ Terry Francona.”

One example of this has been Francona’s utilization of Carlos Santana in the leadoff role. Santana is the second-longest tenured member of the Tribe’s big league club, having debuted in 2010 (Michael Brantley got a cup of coffee in 2009, and Josh Tomlin also came up in 2010). In that time, he has always been a middle of the order hitter, and a consistent one at that.

As we wrote last week, though, Santana is enjoying his most successful major league season in 2016, and part of the reason for that is the way Francona has amplified his biggest strength, namely getting on base at a ridiculous rate. While Santana may not be the prototypical speedy leadoff man, he has a career .364 on-base percentage and walks in more than 15 percent of his plate appearances.

If you’re looking for an explanation for the fact that Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, and Jose Ramirez all have better than 72 RBIs on the season, having an on-base machine like Santana hitting in front of them is, at least in part, a big reason why. Santana’s career-high 34 home runs and his 83 RBIs are just an added bonus.

Speaking of Ramirez, here’s another indicator of the kind of job Francona has done this season, and why he deserves serious consideration for Manager of the Year. He took a utility man who entering the season had a career slash line of .239/.298/.346 and a wRC+ of 76, gave him the confidence to be an everyday player, and has seen him flourish into a guy who is among the very best in the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, doubles, stolen bases, base-out runs added, and win probability added.

Not all of the credit can go to Tito, of course, as Ramirez is the one on the field performing at such a high level, but the fact that the 24-year old has essentially been Brantley, statistically, this season is a testament to way the Francona does his job and trusts his players.

And finally, there is the management of the pitching staff, which may be where Tito has shined the most in 2016. Along with pitching coach Mickey Callaway, who may be the best at his job in the league as well, Francona has taken a strength that has been turned into a weakness by injuries (the starting rotation) and a weakness that has been turned into a strength by an acquisition (the bullpen) into one of the most efficient, effective pitching staffs in the big leagues.

It certainly helps to have a Cy Young award frontrunner like Corey Kluber anchoring your starting staff, but the Tribe has been able to persevere through Carrasco and Salazar’s ailments, the struggles of Cody Anderson, who was in the rotation on Opening day, a second half swoon by Josh Tomlin, and the ever-interesting odyssey of Trevor Bauer to lead the American League in ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, opposition batting average, and win probability added.

In September, as both Tomlin and rookie Mike Clevinger were pressed into larger roles due to the injuries, Francona has managed outings, and expectations, nearly flawlessly, blending the starters with the relief corps to maximize opportunities to win.

Since the acquisition of Andrew Miller from the New York Yankees at the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline, that blending has been taken to another level, as Cleveland has utilized the lanky lefty as a relief ace in the old “fireman” mold made famous by the likes of Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers, and Sparky Lyle. Francona has used his best relievers in the most high-leverage situations, rather than leaning on the accepted, pre-defined roles of closer, setup man, and long relief.

Given the state of the starting rotation, that flexibility, willingness to step outside the accepted norms, and buy-in created with his players will be critical to the Indians’ aspirations of making a deep playoff run.

Next: Tribe to use Hybrid Rotation in Playoffs?

Tomorrow, we’ll take a closer look at Francona’s competition for AL Manager of the Year, but suffice it to say, if Wahoo’s on First had a vote, we know who it would be cast for. Tito has won World Championships, been Manager of the Year, and helmed all-star teams at the Midsummer Classic, but perhaps never before have the full range of his managerial skills been on display as thoroughly as 2016 with this Cleveland Indians team.