Cleveland Indians: Analyzing Mike Clevinger’s playoff usage

Cleveland Indians pitcher Mike Clevinger has not pitched well in relief, and Trevor Bauer struggled as a starter in Game 4. Did Tito make the right call?

With a minimum of 100 innings pitched, Mike Clevinger placed 8th in the American League with a 3.11 ERA. He ranked 9th in the AL in K/9 at 10.13. Clevinger had an average game score of 57.1, good for 8th in the AL. Does this sound like someone who shouldn’t be even the fourth starter on a playoff team?

Compared to Josh Tomlin, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar, Mike Clevinger was by far the most consistent starter. On a team with six solid starters, Clevinger was closer to the third-best starter than the fifth. So what happened?

Francona went with the veterans

Terry Francona often, to a fault, sticks with veterans with experience in high-leverage situations. Bryan Shaw, for example, has performed rather poorly to end the season, as he continues to pitch almost every other game. But, in the most important situations, Shaw still gets the ball because Francona trusts him.

Unfortunately for Clevinger, he did not earn Francona’s trust in the same way that Bauer and Tomlin have. Tomlin is a wily veteran who doesn’t walk people. Clevinger walks a lot of people. Tomlin (arguably) is better suited for playoff baseball if he keeps the ball in the park. But Bauer? That’s a different story.

Why Bauer over Clevinger?

If we only look at post-All-Star break statistics, Clevinger is actually the worst Cleveland starter. All five others had lower ERAs than Clevinger, granted it was not that much lower.

Bauer had a 3.01 ERA with a 10 K/9 and a 3.58 K/BB ratio while Clevinger earned a 3.21 ERA with a 10.36 K/9 and a 2.45 K/BB ratio. Clevinger’s WHIP was also .04 higher than Bauer’s over the same period.

So, logic goes, Bauer had the hotter hand, and he’s a bit more seasoned than Clevinger. Even though Bauer had a 5.27 ERA last postseason, he also made four starts, where Clevinger made zero. So I get it. Except that Clevinger is not good out of the bullpen, and Bauer is good enough.

Starting versus relief

Let’s take Salazar and Tomlin out of the equation and just focus on Clevinger and Bauer. In 2017 as a starter, Clevinger allowed opponents a .206/.304/.645 slash line. As a reliever? .267/.389/.956. That’s a huge difference.

In 2016, where he split more time, he was a dominant reliever. But he was stretched out as a starter, and he did what he needed to do to secure a rotation spot (or so we thought). Is there a psychological impact here?

What about Bauer? In the last three years, Bauer’s starter slash lines are .246/.323/.721 as a starter and .246/.347/.670 as a reliever. Bauer can hold his own as a reliever. He even appeared in the biggest pressure situation of all, Game 7 of the 2016 World Series, and shut down the Cubs when he absolutely had to.

What would you do?

I would trust Bauer all day in that type of situation, where he only has to face a few batters because the guy can pump it up. But in a start, it’s a different story. Clevinger did exactly what he needed to do all year as a starter. He walks a lot of people, but he was a top pitcher in the AL, never mind on the Cleveland Indians. While we all know Bauer can get in his head, is Clevinger in his own head?

He has pitched poorly in two relief appearances in the ALDS. One could have cost them the game, the other dug the Tribe into a deeper hole. But Bauer? He has a rubber arm, and he’s always available. Bauer’s command is a lot better this year, and that’s great for a reliever.

Next: Indians looking to move past ugly Game 4 loss

All signs should point to using Clevinger in a starter role and Bauer as an ace reliever like Andrew Miller.