Cleveland Indians: Plate discipline crucial for Bradley Zimmer in 2018

Bradley Zimmer is an impact player for the Cleveland Indians. With improved focus at the plate, he can become the all-around threat they need him to be.

The success the Cleveland Indians have enjoyed throughout the last two seasons is due largely to the emergence of two superstars, in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez.

Lindor, a highly touted prospect during his rise through the minors, has made good on all the hype that came up with him. Ramirez blossomed in a much different fashion, going from utility player a few years ago to a MVP finalist in 2017.

Despite their relative youth, both Lindor and Ramirez have become leaders in the Indians’ clubhouse. It may seem impossible after their contributions to the team in 2017, but they stand to take on even larger roles next season with the potential departures of Jay Bruce and Carlos Santana, the questions surrounding Michael Brantley‘s health, and the uncertain future of Jason Kipnis.

No sound-minded Indians fan would ever question whether or not Lindor and Ramirez are up to the challenge, but the team is going to need another player or two to take great strides forward in 2018. That’s where Bradley Zimmer comes in.

Zimmer is an outstanding defensive center fielder, and it won’t be long before he’s held in the same regard as some of the game’s elite fly-ball hunters. He’s also a force to be reckoned with on the base paths, swiping 18 bases on 19 attempts last season.

The jury is still out on how the Tribe’s front office plans to shape the roster for 2018, but among in-house options, Zimmer is a near lock to captain the outfield on Opening Day.

Zimmer’s defense and base running ability made him an impact player in his rookie campaign, but if he’s going to take the next step, his bat needs to become a weapon the Indians can depend on no matter where he is in the order.

Zimmer enjoyed a great deal of success when he first arrived on the scene in May, and carried that with him through July with a .283 batting average across his first two-and-a-half months of MLB service. But his strikeout numbers went up with each full month, and once August rolled around his overall production took a sizable dip. He was in the middle of a particularly rough stretch when a broken hand ended his season in early September, having collected just 13 hits in his final 91 at-bats.

It’s simple to look at his general statistics and point out that he struggled at the plate as the season wore on and pitchers figured him out, but knowing the results doesn’t help us find the answers to the question of why. For a more in-depth look, let’s turn to a nifty little tool called FanGraphs.com.

One of the many great elements of FanGraphs is that it incorporates statistical evaluations of a player’s plate discipline into his all-around performance. According to their findings, Zimmer had an “O-Swing%” of 27.9. This means, in short, that Zimmer swung at 27.9 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. His contact rate (or “O-Contact%”) on such swings was 47.5 percent.

Now, let’s compare those numbers to Zimmer’s teammate Ramirez. In 2017, Ramirez swung at 25.4 percent of pitches outside the zone, with a contact rate of 76.6 percent. In other words, he chased a slightly lower percentage of non-strikes, but made contact on significantly more of them.

There is nothing in FanGraphs’ definition of “contact” that differentiates whether the ball was put in play or simply fouled away, but we can still gather some conclusions from this information.

Ramirez, an elite hitter with a .318 average on the season, was able to make contact on 76.6 percent of pitches he shouldn’t necessarily have swung at. Zimmer swung and missed on over half of them, and his .241 batting average is a clear correlation.

What this tells us is that opposing pitchers learned they didn’t need to throw strikes to get Zimmer out because he would chase bad pitches and hadn’t yet displayed an ability to hit them or even fight them off consistently.

This is, of course, nothing new for a young hitter. The 2017 ALDS should still be fresh enough in our minds to remember MVP candidate Aaron Judge struggling mightily with low breaking balls from the Indians’ pitching staff. It can make for a rough road, but good baseball players eventually overcome the challenge and become complete baseball players.

What’s important for Zimmer is to respond to the adjustments that pitchers have made to him. It may seem like an oversimplification, but patience at the plate could make a world of difference for the youngster in 2018. In an offense as dangerous as Cleveland’s, Zimmer doesn’t have to put up MVP numbers–he just needs to get on base.

Next: Top 10 wins from 2017

If he develops better plate discipline, he might just bat high enough in the order to get on base in front of the players who do put up MVP numbers.