Cleveland Indians: A mistake to gamble on Yonder Alonso’s swing change?

Yonder Alonso is the Cleveland Indians’ new first baseman and the club is gambling on his new and improved swing, which could be a big mistake.

The Cleveland Indians entered the offseason knowing they would likely have to find a new starting first baseman with former mainstay Carlos Santana a free agent.

After he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies the Tribe didn’t waste much time and jumped on free agent Yonder Alonso to fill Santana’s spot, signing him to a two-year, $16 million deal with an option for a third year.

On the surface, Alonso would seem like a fine replacement for Santana. Alonso actually outhit Santana in 2017, posting a 132 wRC+ and .866 OPS versus a 117 wRC+ and .818 OPS for Santana. Alonso also hit a career-high 28 home runs in 2017, by far the most he’s ever hit in a season as he had never even reached double digits before last year.

Alonso’s breakout season was spurred by his increased flyball rate, having posted a 43.2-percent flyball rate in 2017, by far the highest of his career and nearly ten points higher than his career average. Alonso appears to have joined the growing trend with a swing change that has helped him elevate the ball more. Or did he?

Related Post: Top 10 wins in 2017

While Alonso’s season stats were great, a closer look gives doubts as to just how much he has changed. Threw the first 10 weeks of the season (through mid-June), Alonso did appear to make a big change. Through June 15, Alonso’s flyball rate was a whopping 51.9-percent in 2017. However, from that point on his flyball rate dipped to just 37.4-percent, which, while still higher than his career mark, was lower than his groundball rate and represents a much smaller change that his overall mark would suggest.

His overall numbers took a major hit after his hot start as well. He went from being one of the best hitters in baseball to barely above league average after mid-June. In fact, Alonso’s 2017 season was pretty much a mirror image of the Tribe’s former first baseman, Carlos Santana.

So the $16 million dollar question is: Did Yonder Alonso swing actually change or was it a small sample size jump that we saw at the beginning of 2017? The Cleveland Indians are clearly banking on the former, hoping that his offense will once again be at or better than Santana’s levels.

If the swing change is for real then the Cleveland Indians may have gotten the biggest steal of the offseason. However, if it was a mirage, then they could be left with a league average (at best) bat at first base; a bat that most likely requires a platoon (though that’s a topic for another article).

The good news for the Tribe is that the gamble they are taking is rather small in terms of dollars and years. $16 million in today’s game is not much and only guaranteeing Alonso two years protects the Tribe somewhat if 2018 is more like 2016 than 2017. However, for a club that has World Series title aspirations in 2018, the gamble is a bit more than I personally would like.

Next: Hall of Fame voting remains a frustrating process

But what do you think, is the team smart in gambling on Yonder Alonso in 2018?  Do you buy into his swing change and offensive turnaround? Or are you more in my camp and think the Cleveland Indians needed to do more at first base and think Alonso is more likely to revert than build off his career year? Let us know in the comments section below.