Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez season preview

The Cleveland Indians gave Jose Ramirez a long term extension prior to last season and he followed that up with the best season of his professional career. What will he do this year?

He’s playing on perhaps the most valuable contract in baseball, earning just under $3 million this year. Ramirez is entering his age 25 season and is just getting into his prime. He received a third place finish in the AL MVP voting last year as well as getting his first Silver Slugger and All Star game nomination.

Something has just seemed to click for Ramirez these past two years. In 2015 he was a middling player with just about 350 ABs and he put up a .219/.291/.340 slash line. But in the past two years, he’s hit well above .300 and has unlocked his power.

Ramirez split his time between second and third base last year, but that’s probably going to change. The Indians have stated they want to keep Jason Kipnis at second base this season, meaning Ramirez will see the majority of his time at the hot corner.

In 2017, Ramirez hit .318/.374/.583 with a league leading 56 doubles, six triples, 29 HRs, 83 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases. If that led to a third place MVP finish, what does the guy have to do win the actual award? Since he’s still young and under team control for a long time, the Cleveland Indians will see Ramirez reach his incredibly high potential in their uniform. But what can we expect from him this season?

Projections

The projections from Baseball Reference are going to be glass-half-empty type of projections. They look like this.

2018 Projections: .298/.357/.501, 42 doubles, 19 HRs, 71 RBIs, 16 stolen bases

The projections show some regression for Ramirez. They don’t believe in his power surge and extra base hit prowess. These projections don’t believe that Ramirez’s great play the last two years is sustainable.

I think Ramirez could reach some of these stats in August. And if he gets to these milestones in August, that means there’s still another month for him to add to it. These projections give a baseline of something that a player should reach, but don’t try to project the final stats.

Predictions

Because projections try for a baseline, that’s why I give my own predictions for how a player is going to produce over the season. I base my numbers off of no one else’s projections and are purely my own guesses.

2018 Predictions: .317/.378/.562, 51 doubles, 31 HRs, 87 RBIs, 20 stolen bases

One of the biggest indicators for regression is a player’s batting average on balls in play, also known as BAbip. Last year, Ramirez’s BAbip was .319, which was not out of line with his .318 average. So he wasn’t incredibly lucky last year, he was just good, which is a strong signal that he can repeat his performance.

His power numbers are not a fluke in my opinion, and even though he fell just shy of reaching 30 homers last season, I think he can get to that milestone for the Cleveland Indians this year.

Awards

As a finalist for the AL MVP award last year, he should remain a strong contender for that award again in 2018. If he can put up the numbers that I predicted above, he should definitely be in the conversation for another top-3 finish in the balloting.

Winning the award will prove difficult once again. Jose Altuve and Aaron Judge are still in the league and are only getting better. 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton is now in the AL and presents another competitor. Plus, his Cleveland Indians teammate Francisco Lindor should also be making a push for the award this year.

He was a Silver Slugger for the first time last year and stands to receive that award again should he continue this high level of production. With the 25 year old Ramirez and 24 year old Lindor, the Cleveland Indians should have the best left side of the infield in baseball.

Next: Francisco Lindor season preview

Last year was a fun one to watch for Ramirez, and all indications are that 2018 will be even better. The Indians have a lot to look forward to from him this season.