Cleveland Indians: Believeland Ball Mailbag, Sunday trade news

In our first installment of the Believeland Ball Mailbag, we address a couple of our readers’ trade deadline questions and thoughts, as well as the trade the Indians completed on Sunday evening.

On Sunday, we tweeted from our site account that we wanted to hear our readers’ thoughts on the Cleveland Indians. We invited you to pitch ideas and ask questions regarding the team, and for our first mailbag of the season, we got some solid participation from our followers.

As promised, let’s address your thoughts.

Question 1: Can the Indians sell and still make a push by acquiring MLB-ready talent?

This is a question that’s hung over the Tribe’s head since last winter, and won’t go away one way or the other until the trade deadline passes. At this juncture, the idea of “selling” seems to focus centrally on Trevor Bauer, so I’ll answer it with him in mind.

From a sheer on-field performance standpoint, trading Trevor Bauer and still being able to contend in 2019 depends heavily on whether one or both of Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco are able to return to full strength. Kluber is recovering from a fractured throwing arm; Carrasco is battling a life-changing illness. There are understandably no guarantees on their respective availability or effectiveness in 2019.

The return the Indians could command for Bauer would theoretically allow them to continue competing on a regular basis this season. If the Padres, for instance, were willing to deal Franmil Reyes or Hunter Renfroe as part of the deal, the Indians would acquire a right-handed outfield bat that almost automatically becomes their new everyday cleanup hitter.

The question then becomes: Is a new outfielder as valuable to the lineup as Bauer is to an already short-staffed rotation? If you asked 100 people that question, you might very well get a 50/50 split. Ultimately it would hinge on what else the Indians were able to acquire other than just the one bat.

Outside of the on-field and business-decision angles, however, there is a human side to trades. When you trade a player in the middle of a pennant race, you’re not just losing his statistical contributions to the team, you’re losing the person as well. Without any quantifiable way to prove this, I’d argue that losing the person can have a significantly more negative impact on the team than losing the player.

Bauer’s reputation and Sunday’s long-toss incident aside, he strikes me as the kind of guy who would run through a brick wall for his teammates, and I think the other guys in that clubhouse know that about him.

My conclusion: the Indians’ best chance to win a World Series in 2019 is if they keep Trevor Bauer.

Question 2: Eduardo Escobar seems like an ideal fit, but what would he cost? Would Yu-Cheng Chang be enough?

Eduardo Escobar of the Diamondbacks is a switch-hitter who can play multiple positions in both the infield and outfield, and he’s under contract through the 2021 season at a team-friendly AAV. These factors give Arizona three pretty sturdy legs to stand on in trade negotiations, so it’s likely that their asking price is relatively high for a 30-year-old who’s never hit more than 23 home runs in a season.

Yu-Cheng Chang is the 10th-ranked prospect in Cleveland’s system at the moment, and the fifth-ranked infielder. The Indians can afford to part with Chang based on the trajectories of Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman through the farm system, so he could certainly serve as a piece in a potential deal for Escobar.

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The Diamondbacks don’t have a single pitching prospect in MLB.com’s top 100, however, so it stands to reason that replenishing some depth in that regard is a high priority at the deadline. They’ll have to reel in the bigger fish with names like Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke, but they can still stockpile in lower-profile deals like a potential Escobar trade.

My conclusion: Taking into account the years of control, positional versatility, and switch-hitting ability of Escobar, along with Arizona’s positional needs, Chang alone would not be enough for Escobar in a one-for-one deal.

Question 3: Should any asking price be too high for the Indians to acquire Yasiel Puig?

Yasiel Puig is a perfect fit for the Indians as a right-handed outfield bat with some power. But he is also a free agent at the end of the season, so that needs to be factored into his cost at the trade deadline.

The most notable recent instances in which the Indians have parted with highly-regarded prospects were in the Andrew Miller deal in 2016, and in the trade for Brad Hand last season. Both Miller and Hand had multiple years of team control left on their respective contracts when the Indians traded for them.

With the possibility of Puig being a two-month rental, it’s difficult to see the front office breaking tradition and shipping out top-tier prospect talent in a trade for the right fielder. Interestingly enough, the aforementioned Chang could be a reasonable starting point for a trade involving Puig.

The Reds have Jose Iglesias on a one-year deal at the moment, but could use another option at shortstop going forward. Chang represents some potential insurance behind Jose Peraza, who has been average-at-best offensively in his career. He could wind up fitting in nicely alongside Nick Senzel and Eugenio Suarez in Cincinnati’s lineup of the future.

My conclusion: The Indians should definitely be in the market for Puig, but unless the Reds are willing to discuss reliever Amir Garrett as well, Cleveland’s top prospects should not be on the table.

Breaking Down Sunday’s Trade

The Indians completed a trade with Tampa Bay on Sunday evening, sending outfield prospect Ruben Cardenas to the Rays for reliever Hunter Wood and former top-100 infield prospect Christian Arroyo.

Wood logged 29 solid innings with the Rays this season, sporting a 2.48 ERA. His batted-ball numbers are cause for concern, however, as he permits fly balls at a 47.1% clip while inducing grounders just 29.4% of the time. He also doesn’t strike many hitters out, owning just a 20% strikeout rate for the season.

At best, Wood provides the Indians with bullpen depth, but Cleveland should still be in the market for another reliever.

Arroyo represents an interesting buy-low acquisition for the Indians, as he is just one year removed from being a highly-regarded prospect. In very limited MLB playing time with the Giants and Rays, he has posted a wRC+ of just 67 across 257 plate appearances.

He’s also not likely to see much–if any–playing time in 2019, as he is on the 60-day IL. Still, if the Indians are able to develop him back into the player he was once thought to be, this could be yet another example of the Tribe’s front office getting a considerable bargain on a young player with untapped potential. Arroyo figures to compete for a starting infield spot in 2020 and beyond.