Cleveland Indians: Corey Kluber season preview

The Cleveland Indians have one of the best rotations in baseball, and it’s led by a two time Cy Young award winner. What does 2018 have in store for Corey Kluber?

Our season preview series that started with the projections for Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Jason Kipnis has moved on to the rotation now, as we take a look at the pitching that can carry this team to the playoffs.

Kluber is coming off the best season of his career. He finished 2017 with a 2.25 ERA with five complete games, and 265 strikeouts over 203.2 innings. I could go on and on about his stats from last year but the bottom line is; he was phenomenal.

The Cleveland Indians will once again have Kluber fronting their rotation and the soon to be 32 year old is in line for another dominating season.

Kluber may have one of his best rotations behind him this year. With a healthy Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, and Mike Clevinger, along with a returning Danny Salazar, the Tribe will have all the pitching they need.

Also, the offensive firepower in this lineup should make Kluber’s job easier. Everyone knows its much easier for starters to pitch with a lead. And with guys like Lindor, Kipnis, Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion up near the top of the lineup, Kluber should have plenty of games with an early lead.

With the best season of his career so far in 2017, what can we possibly expect from Kluber this year?

Projections

The Baseball Reference projections for Kluber believe that Kluber’s numbers from last year are not repeatable. They believe he will be good, but not anywhere near as good as last year.

2018 Projections: 3.10 ERA, 183.0 IP, 209 strikeouts, 1.04 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 10.3 K/9

Kluber has reached at least 200 innings in each of the past four seasons. Why they think he’s all of a sudden going to drop well below that is beyond me. An ERA of 3.10 is not bad by any means but that’s nearly a full point of regression. That just seems to unbelievable for me. Basically, these projections believe Kluber will regress in nearly every category from last season. While that’s bound to happen in some categories, he won’t regress in every single one.

Also interesting that their projections also include one save for Kluber. He’s never recorded a save in his career before and hasn’t pitched out of the bullpen since 2013 but for some reason, they have him recording a save. That’s certainly a bold prediction on their part, but I suppose anything is possible in baseball.

Predictions

The projections think Kluber is going to regress pretty hard. I don’t see that happening, however. Sure, he probably won’t get lower than the 2.25 ERA he had last year, but he should still be somewhat close. This is what I think Kluber will put up.

2018 Predictions: 2.48 ERA, 210.2 IP, 242 strikeouts, 0.97 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9, 11.2 K/9

Kluber is going to complete his fifth straight season with at least 200 innings pitched. And his ERA number drops slightly, but that is still a fantastic number, All of Kluber’s peripheral numbers stay strong as well. I think he can keep his WHIP below 1.00 just like he did last season. His command of the zone gives him the high strikeout rate and the low walk rate that every pitcher desires.

Some of these numbers do drop from his ridiculous 2017 season, but it’s not as drastic a fall as the projections might think. Kluber may be in the back end of his physical prime but it’s still his prime, and I believe he can repeat those numbers for the most part.

Awards

As the reigning AL Cy Young winner, it’s not hard to see Kluber winning consecutive Cy Young awards. Last season he led the league in these categories: wins, ERA, complete game shutouts, ERA+, WHIP, H/9, and BB/9. He’s still going to be as good if not better in these categories.

If he puts up the numbers that I think he will, he should be in line for his second consecutive Cy Young and his third of his career.

Kluber also finished in the top 10 for AL MVP voting. Another top 10 finish is not out of the question but he likely won’t be able to win it, given such strong competition for it this year. Two of his Cleveland Indians teammates in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are also strong competitors for this award.

But we should see Kluber make his third All Star team and could be watching his third Cy Young season. He’s just that good, and I can’t wait to see what he does this season.

Next: Bradley Zimmer season preview

The Cleveland Indians are lucky to have Kluber in their rotation, especially for just under $11 million in salary this season. Many teams have to pay a lot more money for inferior pitchers.